Put differently, we believe that central banks in the UK and Europe are likely to keep their monetary tightening powder dry for some time yet. Accordingly, it seems likely that conjecture will remain our preoccupation at least until we receive some resolution to the great speculation of this year. By this we mean an answer to the question of whether we are in the midst of a vigorous yet typical economic recovery, or near the end of an inventory-led and rather short business cycle bearing testimony to an ongoing debt deflation.
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